San Diego Padres – Cincinnati Reds – June 29, 2021

Tonight, the Reds are looking for revenge in the start of a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres. Play time at the Great American Ball Park is 7:10 p.m. Eastern.

Starting jugs

Tony Santillan makes his fourth MLB start for the Reds against left-handed Blake Snell of the Padres. Craig Stammen, a right-hander, who replaced Blake Snell as the Padres starter tonight because Snell is sick.

Tony Santillan

The Reds’ big right-hander has put together an ERA / FIP of 3.29 / 6.07 in his first three MLB starts. The divergence of these two numbers suggests that Santillan has been very lucky in his short tenure with the Reds. His 1.46 WHIP and incredible LOB% of 95.7% do nothing to dispel such thoughts.

Santillan’s repertoire is straightforward:

4-seam fastball

Use (speed)

49.6% (94.3)


Use (speed)

42.1% (82.1)

UP change

Use (speed)

8.3% (88.1)

Santillan may need to develop a greater variety of pitch to maintain a point of rotation.

In an earlier start against the Padres 11 days ago, Santillan only lasted 3 innings, allowing the same number of walks and runs earned. He also gave up 4 hits, 2 of which left the yard. If he’s going to be better tonight, he’ll have to cut his walks and hold his pitches against the tough Padres line-up outside of the sweet hitting zones.

Craig Stems

Craig Stammen, a 37-year-old right-handed for the Padres who hasn’t made an MLB start since 2010, yes, 2010, has been named to replace the sick Blake Snell. In 33 appearances so far this year, Tribes has brushed batters at the rate of about 1 per inning and has been stingy with walks over 44.2 innings.

Stamen has a fast ball with a low 90’s MPH on about 50% of its seats. His most common secondary pitch is a curve ball thrown about 1 in 3 at about 80 mph. Just this season he introduced a cut fastball that he threw on about 20% of his seats at an average speed of 89 that same speed. How long Stammen will go tonight will have to be seen as the game progresses. He’s done a couple of 2-inning and 3-inning stints this season but was mostly a 1-inning and finished guy.

Story from the tape

Note that Stammen has only worked with the Padres pen this season and keep this factor in mind when looking at his numbers.



Heath Hembree pitched 26 pitches to finish the 7th inning on Monday before the Reds broke out to break up the game and is likely to be very limited if it is even available tonight. Josh Osich and Ryan Hendrix both completed an inning on Monday in less than 10 pitches and should keep up with the rest of the Reds pen.


The padres were off on Monday. Near Mark Melancon last worked on Sunday (16 pitchers) and should be available tonight. Only Tim Hill (28 spaces on Sunday) could be a little restricted tonight.


Alejo Lopez has to wonder what a person needs to do to get an MLB start.

News and notices

The Reds have promoted shortstop Jose Barrero to Triple-A Louisville. The top prospectus reached 0.300 in Double-A with the Chattanooga Lookouts. Doug Gray has more at if you want to read up.

Keep filling the ballot boxes for those much-deserved reds

Nick Castellanos (2nd) and Jesse Winker (3rd) are currently all-star starting positions in the NL outfield! Let’s pass these daily votes down! #VoteCastellanos? #VoteWinker


– Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 29, 2021

Yes, it’s that time again. Hopefully we’re close RED on the front of this guy’s jersey.

Happy Hunter Greene Day !!!

– Louisville Bats (@LouisvilleBats) June 29, 2021

Table position

W. L. PCT GB L10 Game start%
Milwaukee 46 33 .582 0 8-2 77.7%
Chi Cubs 42 37 .532 4th 3-7 32.0%
Cincinnati 39 38 .507 6th 4-6 9.0%
St. Louis 38 41 .481 8th 3-7 1.6%
Pittsburgh 29 48 .377 16 6-4 > 1%

Last thought

As of tonight, the Reds have 13 games left until the All Star Break. 10 of them are with the Padres, Cubs (both with GABP) and Brewers (on road). And as if that wasn’t enough, after the break they open with 3 more against the Brewers (at GABP). The walk becomes hard. The reds better be on their way. GOES RED!

Data and statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

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