If the markets don’t stop on Monday then it certainly is possible.
- It is obvious that inflation is now over 5%. Too many believe that we are in a goldilocks world; we do not and remain prepared for a sudden market correction.
- July earnings could be the best in 2021 for many companies, if not earlier in the first quarter.
- We therefore recommend defensive protection: high cash levels, low or no margin, protection, very short-term trading and buying only in very special situations until August.
- Our position markers: TNX 1.44 VIX 15.55 DJ 34600 SP 4244 & 4271 NAS14031 & 14382 Gold 1780 & 1834
- DANGER: Monday – we anticipate a likely turn from excessive monetary stimulus to less stimulus and more rising inflation and inflation expectations in the near future.
Pivot points: DJI 34333 NAS 14382 SPX 4271 Gold 1780
Sell August correction rates through August 80% bear market through August 64%
————————————————– ————————————————– ————————————————– ————————
Today’s markets still have too little REALITY BUT don’t be surprised if inflation watchers stop believing the “passing” fairy tale, a swan event and / or Robinho or learn that trees don’t grow to the sky. We’re not betting that today’s pyramid schemes will continue – see above. Last Monday, however, the markets could rebound with thin summer markets.
The trigger?
- Bitcoin collapsing (30,000 support broken, which will happen sooner or later) would do it.
- Another landmine would be TNX with 2 = 20% Nasdaq correction.
- In addition to the “I” word inflation of well over 2%, the dreaded “T” word – not the trillion dollar infrastructure package, but TAXES !!!
- A change of perspective – not compared to last month or last year, but a longer-term horizon leaves the analysts’ forecasts hardly anything good.
- The FED warns of changing course (tapering, ready to act IF inflation is NOT temporary) or maybe even suggesting that they discuss tapering or just lose credibility!
At today’s prices, especially SPX> 4000, I don’t want to buy: Current markets have very strong R / R upside potential in the short term compared to their potential risk.
Outside of day trading and in special situations, we plan to sell / short and buy when / when the markets are 10-20% lower.
PIVOTS 2020 Closing 10% – November 3rd
DJI 34444 30606 31581 27480
SPX 4284 3756 3852 3369
NAS 14280 12888 12924 11160
Inflation is now above 5% and I don’t think it is just “temporary”, i.e. it will be in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 as well.
Given the sky-high valuations of the market, we don’t see enough FOUNDATIONS (Fed Housing, Vaccines, and Incentive Packages) to justify the SP500 gains.
Our recommendation is still maximum portfolio protection.
TSLA, BTC, VIX, GME & TNX are our five “Canaries in the Coal Mine” markets:
When three or more canaries are singing, get ready for Head for the Hills (& / or your nearest bar) .
TNX: > 1.50-1.75
TSLA: <695-555
VIX:> 22-26
BTC: <42-30K
GME: * <50-30
* Gamestop & stocks like AMC [>20] or COIN [>225] are like Bitcoin, their trading has little or no relation to reality.
Aside from a reality check that the Kaiser has NO clothes, newbies who learn that all stocks are NOT going up all the time can also measure market spikes (June and / or August).
TRADERS SHOULD DO FAST DAY TRADES OR HAVE VERY DEEP POCKETS
- It is wise to post profits after hard rallies or market collapses.
- The current chances of a market decline on Monday are potentially high. After that we see more positive astrology (built in?) In July. After that, we can largely stand aside until the end of the month with no market-moving news.
Commodity trading:
Buy gold at Dips Rinse and repeat Last purchase 1780.
Buy silver at dips <26
Copper Watch 4.10 support & 4.50 resistance
Sell / distribute oil> 72 Sort> 75
MARKER DJIA SPX NASDAQ SILVER GOLD COPPER BONDS OIL BITCOIN CNY
|
2020 CLOSE |
30606 |
3756 |
12888 |
26.52 |
1901 |
3.52 |
.91 |
48.42 |
28996 |
6.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
06/25/202 26-1 |
34433 |
4280 |
14360 |
26,194 |
1781 |
4.28 |
1.52 |
74 |
31339 |
6.45 |
|
Swivel joints |
34444 |
4284 |
14000 |
26th |
1780 |
4.25 |
1.50 |
72 |
36000 |
6.40 |
|
RESISTANCE SUPPORT |
35000 33000 |
4300 3900 |
14500 13000 |
30th 25th |
1825 1750 |
4.50 4.10 |
1.75 1.40 |
75 60 |
40000 30000 |
6.50 6.30 |
IMPORTANT DATES: July 26th-31st August 2-4 9/10
DJIA: pivot point 34500
SPX: 4284
NASDAQ: 14440
GOLD: 1780 PIVOT R1 1800 S1 17500
SILVER: 26 R1 28
OIL: 72 PIVOT R1 75
COPPER: S1 4.10
US 10 year: 1.50 PIVOT
DXY: 92 PIVOT
VIX: 16 18 R1 R2 R3 22 26
BTC: 35K PIVOT S1 33K S2 30K S3 24K S4 10K
2020 CLOSING: DJIA 30606 SPX 3756 & NASDAQ 12888
2019 CLOSING: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 & NASDAQ 8823
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
AFUND Fair Value GOLD $ 1828
Reduce risk and focus on capital preservation:
TRADITIONAL SWISS THINKING AND PRESERVING CAPITAL: SECURING AND PROTECTING FROM DOWNWARD RISKS.
2. Prepare a list of stocks to buy AFTER THIS a correction of 20%.
Over time, we expect a continued shift away from investments that benefited from the pandemic and lockdowns – like tech, healthcare stocks, and bonds – to investments that will benefit from a slow but sustained recovery – like commodities, industrials, Infrastructure, tourism stocks and finance.
Many analysts recommend adding investments that can benefit from higher inflation, such as energy, gold, TIPS, utilities, art / blue chip collectibles, and select real estate.
Preferred H2 2021 sectors:
Entertainment, Mining & technology [AFTER a 20% correction if Undervalued & Highly Scalable]
We are currently also looking at some Choose Health care (lower costs / better results and distressed investing for the third quarter of 2021.
Note: For oil over USD 70, we reduce / cover energy bets.
Stock selection is important. Whenever possible, we prefer to invest in stocks with strong cash flows, solid balance sheets, and rising dividends.
Pick your favorite stocks and patiently bid on them.
3. It is a rare pleasure to see gold and silver UNDERVALUED these days!
One can only imagine Bitcoin to be a reality as it would likely usher in a quick source of many new gold investors.
The fair value of gold is $ 1,828 with a support of $ 1,750 and an overhead resistance of $ 1,925.
Silver Fair Value $ 27, $ 25 Support and $ 30 Overhead Resistance.
There are many good buys in the precious metals space depending on your time frame and your risk / return desires.
Check out the latest AFUND lunches, conferences and past webinars posted on ours Youtube channell]for some investment ideas that could be profitable in 2021.
Gold: In principle, the global political and economic situation is very favorable for precious metals.
Precious metals remain popular areas. Many generalist investors now have some interest in metals and mining.
In addition, it is under-allocated by most investment programs, This gives him even more potential headroom, especially if inflation fears re-emerge and / or if the US dollar weakens!
We therefore recommend a full and overweight precious metals portfolio allocation.
However, we advise long-term precious metals investors to also pay attention to stock selection.
Gold remains a cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
For investors who cannot or do not want to buy the US dollar currency, as well as investors who want to hedge their US dollar exposure safely and inexpensively,ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Once again, some investors are hedging record share prices by buying gold.
Low real interest rates are good for gold, and low global bond yields make gold an attractive alternative hedge for risk reduction.
We expect precious metals stocks to outperform physical gold and silver in 2021.
Gold FV $ 1828 = Raw material FV: 1670 + currency FV: 1800+ inflation metal FV: 1800 + crisis FV: 2042
INVESTORS: Despite short-term seasonal summer trends, we will remain LONG as an investment as well as a portfolio hedge in the second half of 2021.
4th JULY SPICED SPECULATOR Pick: TBA
Most are high risk, high return market picks that we believe may be very rewarding and / or interesting to watch.
Many picks are best for speculative portfolio allocation and so are bought as a member of a group of 5 to 10 such stocks.
Remember NOT to ignore potential high risk – that is, use speculative allocation, that is, “money you can afford to lose without changing your lifestyle”.
Always conduct due diligence before deciding to act.
5. “Stocks usually lead the economy and see better times ahead in the first year of a bull market. Then, when the better times come after a recession, stocks can sometimes catch their breath. “
Ryan Detrick, Chief Marketing Strategist, LPL Financial
HW: Sometimes.
“The market may have avoided a few horrors and when we look back to the second half… there are probably still some risks ahead of us than there were a few months ago.
James Ragan, Director of Wealth Management Research, DA Davidson
HW: More than a few.
“Crude oil prices rose on the improving demand outlook and the market will remain tense above expectations as OPEC + is likely to deliver only a small boost to production at the July 1st ministerial meeting.”
Edward Moya, Senior Market Analyst, OANDA
HW: We still believe that $ 70 + is unlikely to be sustainable in the medium term.
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