12:03 | : And happy Thursday! |
12:03 | : The last 9/16/21 of your lifetime. |
12:04 | : Dank Frank Schwindel or Dank Dizzy? |
12:05 | : I have been having an intense argument with my friend and need your take: is a taco a hotdog and therefore a sandwich? |
12:06 | : No |
12:06 | : The Cardinals are now leading the NL wild-card race?? How the hell did that happen?! I am confusion, ZIPS explain |
12:06 | : The competition has been very unimpressive and the Cards have just plugged away this summer |
12:06 | : Since mid-June, they’ve only had two three-game losing streaks |
12:08 | : Plus the pitching has been really solid |
12:08 | : It’s really been solid every month but June (and June is their only losing calendar month, I think) |
12:08 | : Do you think Impossible Sliders is an appropriate way for me to break my fast tonight? Asking for myself. |
12:08 | : I don’t trust food that lies about the probability |
12:09 | : I would more trust the Unlikely Burger or the Suprisingly Plausible Burger |
12:09 | : Precisely noon, my ass. |
12:09 | : There was still attendance even though I was a minute late! |
12:09 | : I was checking the smoker outside |
12:09 | : With ZIPs as your guide, will Jose Altuve become a hall of famer? |
12:09 | : I think from a performance standpoint, he’ll get there |
12:10 | : Whether he gets into the Hall, it remains to be seen just how writers treat the Astros |
12:10 | : HEY THIS IS A TRICK TO GET ALTUVE CAREER ZIPS WITHOUT WAITING FOR AN ARTICLE |
12:12 | : ZiPS has him with 14 yet |
12:12 | : which puts him in the borderline for WAR. Also 2700 hits. |
12:12 | : Which makes it interesting |
12:12 | : Because for a player on the edge, those issues can matter even for the most forgiving. |
12:13 | : If Bonds were a borderline candidate, his positive amphetamine test in 2006 may have put me into the no column. |
12:13 | : In a theoretical world, of course, in which Bonds wasn’t an inner-circle HoFer and I got my vote before 2025. |
12:13 | : Who does ZIPS have as the wild cards? |
12:13 | : Yankees and Jays |
12:13 | : what non baseball websites do you reguarly visit? |
12:13 | : Lot of computer tech and gaming stuff |
12:13 | : the usual reddit and youtube like most people |
12:14 | : I’m on Tom’s Hardware a lot, I enjoy helping walk people through their custom PC builds |
12:14 | : Free MILB.TV rest of the season means I need a Daily Zips Post on what games I need to target on the app. Please and thank you. |
12:14 | : oh god! |
12:14 | : Do you think about whether Zips will be used/useful 5, 10, 15 years after you choose to / are no longer able to run it? |
12:14 | : Haven’t really given it much thought |
12:15 | : Après moi, le déluge and all that |
12:15 | : Depends how much baseball changes |
12:16 | : Besides, we know baseball ends in 2042 |
12:16 | : Robbie Ray… just… wow |
12:16 | : His projection is going up like $2 million per start |
12:16 | : When a team greatly outperforms not just their projections, but also their expected record based on accumulated stats, what can we take away from that? Is it just always luck/noise? Is there no hidden signal there? |
12:17 | : Generally speaking, projections themselves change and shift based on new information. And if you disagree, Thomas Bayes comes and mudhole stomps you in your sleep |
12:17 | : Though exceeding record based on things they did (as opposed to the things they did becoming better) is not very predictive |
12:18 | : It sounds like it should, but even things like bullpen quality have little bearing |
12:19 | : I wrote something related. |
12:19 | : hello is this working |
12:19 | : IT IS |
12:19 | : Is horse paste on MLB’s list of banned substances? 😁 |
12:19 | : I don’t know? |
12:19 | : I guess it could be a masking agent in addition to a dewormer? |
12:20 | : It’s 2045. Wander Franco has just been elected to the HoF. Who are the top players on his similarity score metrics? Is he a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs type or does he develop more power. |
12:20 | : His first Hall of Fame comp in ZiPS is Barry Larkin |
12:20 | : Hello harold is harold here |
12:21 | : THIS IS DAN WHODIS? |
12:21 | : what’s for lunch? |
12:21 | : Mom dropped off a couple egg mcmuffins |
12:21 | : Which is more than fair considering she also left with one of my credit cards, so god knows what she’s buying |
12:21 | : Are 40-something amazing games enough to move the ZIPS 2022 needle on Frank Schwindel? I don’t think anyone sees a .453 wOBA for him next year, but .292 is looking pretty low, too. |
12:22 | : Not a huge amount |
12:22 | : I can’t do that one on the fly because I need to translate las vegas stats first |
12:22 | : You ever start a chat and yell out “LFG” as loud as you can to get yourself fired up? |
12:22 | : I have not. |
12:23 | : I’m not really a “fired up” kind of guy. I’m more calm and sarcastic. |
12:23 | : Do you still expect The Jays to miss the post season? |
12:23 | : If they don’t make it, I think they’ll miss being in the postseason |
12:23 | : Dan, who are some journeyman hitters who emerged this season that zips believes in? As in, if they are given the opportunity to play (probably on bad teams) in ’22, could have similar performances. Such as Lane Thomas, Dank Schwindel, Ramon Urias, etc |
12:24 | : That’s something I’m likely to do after I have final minor league translations in |
12:24 | : Wins are a bad stat and yadda yadda but Jon Lester is going to get 200 of them and I am happy for him |
12:24 | : Egg McMuffins aren’t nutritious, but you can still be happy I have ’em! |
12:24 | : Bo Bichette had another big day with the bat yesterday. But, his errors are quite high this year. How long do you expect Bichette to stay at SS for Toronto? |
12:25 | : I’m not worried about a move by any means right now |
12:25 | : There could be a kid reading this that will live to be 110, theoretically could be their 2nd-to-last 9/16/21 of their lifetime |
12:25 | : If a kid’s cutting school to come to a szymchat, they’ll probably grow up and become a meth dealer and probably won’t live to be 110 |
12:25 | : What are the chances Keuchel gets traded this offseason? |
12:25 | : Very low, I think |
12:26 | : Why did I make that Kimbrel trade? |
12:26 | : It was still a reasonable trade. |
12:26 | : Luis Garcia for 2021 St. Louis Cardinals Team MVP? |
12:27 | : He’s been really solid, but that’s a stretch! |
12:27 | : My hot dog bun just broke at the seam completely! But i don’t want a sandwich. Do i make another? |
12:27 | : Yup |
12:27 | : Will MLB go back to an 8/31 trade deadline? It is painful watching the Padres trot out any live body with an arm still attached. |
12:27 | : I don’t think so |
12:28 | : Is a fox a cat or dog? |
12:28 | : Closer to a dog. All in the Canidae family |
12:29 | : The Cardinals are strongly considering moving their outfield fence in. Is this something any projection system would factor in proactively? |
12:29 | : I do have a model to approximate fence changes |
12:30 | : I look at Adam wainwright’s performance and how it impacts his bWAR and fWAR each game and it seems WAR materially undercounts his value. Is there something about his style that metrics don’t like ? |
12:30 | : a FIP measure is going to be less volatile. fWAR also liked Wainwright more than his ERA the last couple years when he was underperforming his FIP |
12:31 | : err 2017-2018 |
12:31 | : I keep forgetting years happened |
12:31 | : But you know what I mean |
12:31 | : If this is a magic month for teams with bird names, what will happen for the Orioles? |
12:31 | : Chris Davis won’t unretire |
12:32 | : what are you smoking outside? |
12:32 | : spare ribsd |
12:32 | : How would you rate the veggie, uh, plant-based burgers? |
12:32 | : Never actually had them |
12:32 | : From my point of view you were nearly 3 hours early if the chat was supposed to start at noon! |
12:32 | : `I use proper east coast time |
12:32 | : Do you like Charlie Morton extension? When will he finally show age? |
12:32 | : I think it’s fine |
12:33 | : He is reaching the age at which age-related decline does become a bigger issue |
12:33 | : and I think the salary reflects that |
12:33 | : Do you know if an active MLB player has ever actively participated in one of your chats? |
12:33 | : Not that I’m aware of. They have better things to do |
12:33 | : Did you ever play ogre battle for the SNES mr.dan? |
12:33 | : That was a lot of fun! |
12:35 | : Norm MacDonald fan? |
12:35 | : Absolutely! |
12:35 | : The Royals are on pace to win 72-75 games. They basically bring the same team back, plus top prospect Witt. Is that enough to push them to .500 or so? |
12:35 | : Not really, no |
12:35 | : Have you taught ZIPS to love? |
12:35 | : I’ve barely taught me to love |
12:36 | : For 2021, were the Mariners better off with closer Graveman or 2B Toros? |
12:36 | : Honestly, I think Toro |
12:37 | : It doesn’t feel good if you’re a player |
12:37 | : but the Mariners still have a decent bullpen without Graveman |
12:37 | : and 2B was mostly a mess this year |
12:38 | get underline oh no what is happening | : harold this is aunt bitsy tell your mom happy birthday how do you
12:38 | : Season ends today, who are your major award winners? |
12:38 | : Hmm |
12:38 | : Ohtani MVP AL |
12:38 | : Cole MVP NL |
12:39 | : I’m actually very tempted to take Wander ROY AL in this theoretical |
12:39 | : it’s not necessarily MOST VALUABLE rookie, but best rookie |
12:39 | : NL Cy C. Milwaukee Burnes |
12:40 | : I think Trea would be my MVP, but it’s close |
12:40 | : NL ROY not saying since I’m a voter tehre |
12:40 | : I took that 85% non-tendy personally a few weeks ago Dan!! |
12:40 | : whats your cat(s) situation? |
12:41 | : Cassiopeia was sleeping in the back room upstairs |
12:41 | : Mercutio’s probably in the living room as I heard mom praising him through my ceiling when she stopped by |
12:41 | : Don’t know what the catlets are doing right now. They were at the dining room window watching me check the smoker before I got here |
12:41 | : You’re allowing ghosts in here? Sorry I’m out |
12:42 | : Favorite amusement park ride? |
12:42 | : Lazy River! |
12:42 | : There’s a place here that allows you to bring your alcoholic beverage on the lazy river |
12:44 | : from a more “ridey” level, I tned to prefer things with a lot of horizontal action and water |
12:44 | : I like vertical things less. I tend to “gray out” in sudden changes in elevation, which has contributed to a healthy dislike of heights and sudden changes in elevation |
12:44 | : so I love rapids rides and twisty water slides |
12:44 | : but not the straight down ones. |
12:44 | : If a kid’s cutting school to come to a szymchat it’s probably Juan Soto |
12:45 | : Can or has Zips been used to project players’ home and away performance in extreme cases such as the Rockies’? |
12:45 | : Generic park factors are better predictors of a player’s future home/road splits than their actual home/road splits are! |
12:45 | : The university I work at has chicken finger thursday for lunch every Thursday (today!). I usually feel just “meh” about it, should I just suck it up and get the chicken fingers or does it really mean I should get a salad instead? |
12:45 | : how do you mess up chicken fingers? |
12:45 | : Depends how good the sald is |
12:45 | : Most places use crap lettude |
12:46 | : lettuce |
12:46 | : I’m not interested in salads eating out unless they’re *specific* on a good lettuce like Boston. Or spring mix, which I always enjoy. |
12:47 | : If your city had to be abandoned for 20 years (like Chernobyl but without the killer radiation), what animal would take over control? Raccoons? |
12:47 | : Raccoons are foragers. There would quickly be no food to forage, I don’t imagine |
12:47 | : I would guess that as wild vegetation grew, you’d get a lot of deer and maybe boar |
12:48 | : Is a porcupine a cat or dog? |
12:48 | : Rodent, so neither are particularly close! At least as close as a fox |
12:48 | : Did you ever play World of Warcraft? If so, will you play New World? |
12:48 | : Do do and still. I’ll probably play New World |
12:48 | : Though there’s a Final Fantasy XIV expansion coming up, so I’ll be into that one for awhile |
12:49 | : I will play the crap out of WoW/FFXIV/GW2 during expansions, but I don’t usually hang around for the periods where it’s just grindy out elite gear |
Related Posts
12:49 | : Though I will be around to do some big raids. |
12:49 | : Do the Dodgers sign Seager and Kershaw and Scherzer in the off-season? Or only two of the three? |
12:49 | : I think the first two and not Scherzer |
12:49 | : If you wrap your broken hotdog bun in a fruit by the foot you repair the damage, return it to hotdog-dom, and add a fascinating new flavour dimension |
12:50 | : What was your favorite 1980s arcade video game? |
12:50 | : Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles |
12:50 | : I played a lot of Final Fight and Rampage |
12:51 | : It’s too bad arcades still aren’t a big thing! It would be fun to be an adult and be all “Yeah, I can literally stand here and just put quarters in machines all day and not miss the money at all.” |
12:51 | : Will the braves resign Freeman? Should they? |
12:51 | : Yes Yes |
12:51 | : Do you think universal DH makes it into the CBA? It seems like everyone sees it as an inevitability (ie the players didn’t seem to view it as moving the needle in offers before this season) so maybe it slips through the cracks |
12:51 | : Yes |
12:52 | Please help | :
12:52 | : Alcoholic beverage of choice on lazy River? |
12:52 | : A nice shandy is proper for gentle floating with the occasional angry waterfall |
12:52 | : What kind of smoker? |
12:52 | : it’s a cusiniart electric smoker |
12:52 | : The American way would be to put the fingers in the salad |
12:52 | : That is not a Wendy’s joke |
12:52 | : CRAP LETTUDE is a good create-a-character name |
12:53 | : Have you been watching MJF’s heat on Brian Pillman Jr? My goodness I haven’t seen a heel with this much heat since Vince, have you? |
12:53 | : I’m a bit behind on wrestling lately as the pennant races have heated up |
12:53 | : Everyone and everything else thinks Robbie Ray is completely dominant while fWAR is way more into Eovaldi and Cole. Not a question just seems to weird. |
12:53 | : If you wrap a broken hot dog in vegetable by the yard, you have a healthy snack |
12:54 | : Why do your chats always devolve into complete BS by the 45-minute mark? |
12:54 | : If my chats devolve into nonsense by the 45 minute mark, that means I’ve been rather lax. I try to have that happen by 12:20 or so |
12:54 | : Kris Medlen is 35 years old |
12:54 | : Re: Royals.. have we gone from most likely non-tendering Benintendi to extending him for 2-3 years and putting Isbel in CF next season? |
12:54 | : I think they tender him |
12:55 | : Would you give Sal Perez a down ballot vote for AL MVP? |
12:55 | : He’s had a fun season and it’s great to see him crush homers, but I don’t think he’s in my 10 most valuable |
12:56 | : especially because I’d likely be more willing to put in pitchers more than most |
12:56 | : (I haven’t had an MVP yet, just Cy and Rookie) |
12:56 | : What’s the best case scenario for the O’s for 2022? |
12:56 | : The pit beef remains good |
12:56 | : Cats have to be the answer to the abandoned city question. Look at what they have done in Australia |
12:56 | : They kinda chase foragers though, no? |
12:57 | : Rodents kinda follow human activity, I assume |
12:57 | : Though in this example, I guess there wouldn’t be a huge reduction in bird population? |
12:57 | : I’m assuming birds are more sensitive to a radiation event than vegetation? |
12:57 | : I honestly don’t know any of this |
12:58 | : Has trout reached “slight disappointment” level yet because of the yearly injuries? Seems we are missing out on the massive counting stats phase of his career. |
12:58 | : In this context, you could say yes |
12:58 | : Biggest change in next CBA? |
12:58 | : I thin kthere will be some service time adjustments |
12:58 | : My little boy has a .8 WAR Dan. That is all. |
12:58 | : Don’t come at Dan with a cat hypothetical he’ll crush your dreams |
12:58 | : Name 3 foods that you find so disgusting you won’t even allow on your plate (difficulty: no Cincinnati chili). |
12:58 | : Broccoli, cauliflower, tongue |
12:59 | : If you were running a team, would you rather be in the AL East (Tampa, Toronto, NYY, BOS) or the NL West (LAD/SFG)? |
12:59 | : AL East. I’m more comfortable on the east coast |
12:59 | : There’s no radiation. Humans had to abandon the city for another, ambiguous reason that does not affect animal health. |
12:59 | : Then I guess more cats than in a radiation scenario |
12:59 | : your loss on lengua |
12:59 | : YOU CAN SEE THE TONGUE-NESS |
12:59 | : Arugula is the ideal salad green |
1:00 | : I agree. Arugula is badass and I’d be in favor of it replacing lettuce as the viridis franca |
1:01 | : Devolved chats are quite simply an indication of a society that is not of a proper ilk for some of us, shall I say, advanced people. |
1:01 | : If you can fold your tongue such that it touches itself, have you tasted tongue before? |
1:01 | : You’ve licked tongue, but you have to bite into it to get taste |
1:01 | : Order one lengua taco with your steak tacos and try to tell which one is lengua. |
1:01 | : Oh, I’ve tried. You can tell from texture |
1:01 | : I like tripa |
1:01 | : Final thoughts on today’s chat? |
1:01 | : I was terrible, so about par for the course |
1:02 | : Rate the lettuces! |
1:02 | : GDI |
1:02 | : Boston is the S tier |
1:03 | : green leaf red leaf up there |
1:03 | : iceberg doesn’t even get on the frigging tier list |
1:03 | : romaine is meh for me |
1:03 | : I’m not counting endive and escarole and all those |
1:04 | : Lorenzen’s got 97 along with a cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball…Is he starting somewhere in 2022? Probably not, pansies |
1:04 | : what’re you smoking today? (I mean on the smoker, not impugning your chat at all) |
1:04 | : spare ribs |
1:05 | : I do east NC sauce, so no tomatoes |
1:05 | : spring mix with spinach or without |
1:06 | : Without, though I do like spinach |
1:06 | : Hey Dan, who do you think the Jays get (if any) in the big FA SS market? |
1:06 | : I think they get an extension on semien |
1:06 | : Simple question: If the moon were made of spare ribs would you eat it? |
1:06 | : Probably not simply because I have no way to get to the moon |
1:06 | : and if I did, I could only eat parts of the moon no the whole moon |
1:07 | : if the astronauts brought back moon ribs, I’d try though |
1:07 | : Best thing to smoke that’s not pork, beef, chicken, or fish? |
1:07 | : leg of lamb! |
1:07 | : or a pineapple |
1:08 | : I enjoy cold smoking salmon inside |
1:08 | : with my gun |
1:08 | : |
1:09 | : |
1:09 | : Dan, next time you visit Jay in Brooklyn go to barcade. |
1:10 | : there are some places near me I need to check out |
1:10 | : On a scale of 1 to “Cincinnati Chili,” how disgusted should Reds fans be that they’re going to miss the playoffs because they can’t beat the likes of the Tigers and Pirates? |
1:10 | : Cincinnati chili without spaghetti |
1:10 | : Most compelling baseball storyline for you at the moment: ready, set, go! |
1:10 | : WTF Is Going On With the Padres |
1:10 | : Since May 1, Kyle Tucker has the (tied) highest wrc+ in the league, and the xwoba numbers bear that out. He’s only 24; what do you see as his ceiling? |
1:10 | : Very high! |
1:11 | : if you were on chopped, do you think you’d make a passable dish, like where the judges would have some good and some bad? or just trash it and say “this is not good.” I feel they always try to find some good things but am unsure how much better professional chefs are starting from |
1:11 | : I think it’d be sort of passable, but inferior to the chefs |
1:11 | : Though I’d do better in this kind of challenge than a straight cooking challenge. |
1:12 | : Should amusement parks have park factors? |
1:12 | : Sure |
1:12 | : cost of park |
1:12 | : excitement per minute |
1:12 | : I’ve never used a smoker before, but I signed up to make a smoked simple syrup on Saturday. Any advice? |
1:12 | : Don’t catch yourself on fire? |
1:12 | : Chopped judges should not be allowed to criticize the food at all. You made them put bubble gum and horseradish in it, that’s not their fault. |
1:13 | : I like when they complain they didn’t get ENOUGH of the horror |
1:13 | : like just the other day, one of them was complaining he needed more strawberry milkshake in the sauce for his sliders |
1:13 | : If they left it up to you, what would you do with the arb/free agency system for the next CBA? |
1:13 | : Without being too extreme |
1:14 | : I would implement revenue sharing based on wins over a certain number. |
1:14 | : Like wins over 70 or something. |
1:14 | : Teams like the Rays will spend if it’s in their financial interest to do so. |
1:15 | : The Rays see little financial benefit from winning 90 games instead of 70, as it currently stands. |
1:15 | : But if htey got a lot MORE in a year like this and much LESS in a year like 2016, players are more valuable to them |
1:16 | : CHOPPED QUIZ: spaghetti, ground beef, onions, chili powder. What are you making? |
1:16 | : ice cream, of course |
1:16 | : Is this the offseason the Reds finally move Senzel? Seems like he desperately needs a fresh start somewhere and I’m still tantalized by the potential there. |
1:16 | : I think he’s gone at some point in the next two seasons |
1:16 | : Did you read Judge’s article today on having a “salary pool” for players that MLBPA determines how to divide? I think it’s an interesting idea but would MLBPA even go for it, just because it’s almost certainly tear the union apart in like 10 seconds? |
1:16 | : I haevn’t read it yet |
1:16 | : The other change I would make |
1:17 | : is that the extra days over 6.000 in service time are considered loans that teams have to repay a player when they hit free agency |
1:17 | : so the Cubs would have to cut Bryant a check for 173/174th times some percentage of his AAV in his next contract |
1:17 | : for the 173 extra days they “borrowed” from his career |
1:18 | : Is it permissible to structure a player’s contract for a partial season? Player becomes a free agent at the All Star break? |
1:18 | : O dpm |
1:18 | : I don’t think there’s anything specifically against that |
1:18 | : but it’s awkward for both player and team |
1:18 | : you do see minor league deals with seasonal opt-out points |
1:18 | : that chopped episode actually had skyline chili in it! |
1:18 | : I know. That guy made a Cincinnati chili maple sauce and I wanted to barf in my mouth |
1:18 | : Thanks for the answer! But I was asking more about service time issues. Like, everyone’s a free agent at 29? Higher minimum salaries? etc. |
1:18 | : I think the last block answered that? |
1:19 | : (Not the cincinnati chili maple sauce) |
1:19 | : If the O’s hired a new GM today, how many years would he or she get before you would complain if they were not winning? How about the Royals? |
1:19 | : It depends on what they do. |
1:19 | : I will complain about a bad move on day 1. |
1:19 | : What’s the third best film after Twister and Speed 2: Cruise Control? |
1:19 | : Swarm |
1:19 | : THE BEES DERAIL A TRAIN |
1:19 | : The Swarm |
1:21 | : Imagine having this cast and making a movie so bad that it circles around to being good |
1:22 | : Please tell me you still think the Dodgers win the division by 3 games? Game 163 or a wildcard spot feels unfair for a team this good. |
1:23 | : They’re rapidly running out of calendar |
1:23 | : Thanks, it did. I do think chili maple sauce solves a lot problems as well. |
1:23 | : Cincinnati chili maple sauce would make me lose weight instantly because I’d never want to eat food |
1:24 | : In The Swarm, they have the most amazing hilaribad scenes |
1:24 | : Henry Fonda testing a vaccine on himself |
1:25 | : Way too much exposition on explaining why Michael Caine has an English accent |
1:25 | : weird old person love triangle |
1:25 | : quotes like “The bees…they used to be our friends!” |
1:25 | : The swarm of bees backtracking after kids through Molotov cocktails at them TO GET REVENGE ON THE TOWN |
1:26 | : On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week |
1:26 | : Thanks for coming everyone! |
1:26 | : The Swarm? Interesting and fun but no… Zardoz is the answer |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
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