Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/16/21

12:03 Dan Szymborski: And happy Thursday!
12:03 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The last 9/16/21 of your lifetime.
12:04 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dank Frank Schwindel or Dank Dizzy?
12:05 The Great Giambino: I have been having an intense argument with my friend and need your take: is a taco a hotdog and therefore a sandwich?
12:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: No
12:06 The Great Giambino: The Cardinals are now leading the NL wild-card race?? How the hell did that happen?! I am confusion, ZIPS explain
12:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The competition has been very unimpressive and the Cards have just plugged away this summer
12:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since mid-June, they’ve only had two three-game losing streaks
12:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Plus the pitching has been really solid
12:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s really been solid every month but June (and June is their only losing calendar month, I think)
12:08 TomBruno23: Do you think Impossible Sliders is an appropriate way for me to break my fast tonight? Asking for myself.
12:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t trust food that lies about the probability
12:09 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would more trust the Unlikely Burger or the Suprisingly Plausible Burger
12:09 Tacoby Bellsbury: Precisely noon, my ass.
12:09 Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was still attendance even though I was a minute late!
12:09 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was checking the smoker outside
12:09 JC: With ZIPs as your guide, will Jose Altuve become a hall of famer?
12:09 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think from a performance standpoint, he’ll get there
12:10 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whether he gets into the Hall, it remains to be seen just how writers treat the Astros
12:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him with 14 yet
12:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: which puts him in the borderline for WAR. Also 2700 hits.
12:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which makes it interesting
12:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because for a player on the edge, those issues can matter even for the most forgiving.
12:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Bonds were a borderline candidate, his positive amphetamine test in 2006 may have put me into the no column.
12:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: In a theoretical world, of course, in which Bonds wasn’t an inner-circle HoFer and I got my vote before 2025.
12:13 Guest: Who does ZIPS have as the wild cards?
12:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yankees and Jays
12:13 Dansbee: what non baseball websites do you reguarly visit?
12:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lot of computer tech and gaming stuff
12:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: the usual reddit and youtube like most people
12:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m on Tom’s Hardware a lot, I enjoy helping walk people through their custom PC builds
12:14 TomBruno23: Free MILB.TV rest of the season means I need a Daily Zips Post on what games I need to target on the app. Please and thank you.
12:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh god!
12:14 Legazy: Do you think about whether Zips will be used/useful 5, 10, 15 years after you choose to / are no longer able to run it?
12:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’t really given it much thought
12:15 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Après moi, le déluge and all that
12:15 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends how much baseball changes
12:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Besides, we know baseball ends in 2042
12:16 Momus: Robbie Ray… just… wow
12:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: His projection is going up like $2 million per start
12:16 Mork Borg: When a team greatly outperforms not just their projections, but also their expected record based on accumulated stats, what can we take away from that?  Is it just always luck/noise?  Is there no hidden signal there?
12:17 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, projections themselves change and shift based on new information. And if you disagree, Thomas Bayes comes and mudhole stomps you in your sleep
12:17 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though exceeding record based on things they did (as opposed to the things they did becoming better) is not very predictive
12:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It sounds like it should, but even things like bullpen quality have little bearing
12:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wrote something related.
12:19 Guest1: hello is this working
12:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: IT IS
12:19 Catcher on the Rye: Is horse paste on MLB’s list of banned substances? 😁
12:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know?
12:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I guess it could be a masking agent in addition to a dewormer?
12:20 Cliffyw: It’s 2045. Wander Franco has just been elected to the HoF. Who are the top players on his similarity score metrics? Is he a Tony Gwynn/Wade Boggs type or does he develop more power.
12:20 Avatar Dan Szymborski: His first Hall of Fame comp in ZiPS is Barry Larkin
12:20 Guest1: Hello harold is harold here
12:21 Avatar Dan Szymborski: THIS IS DAN WHODIS?
12:21 Dansbee: what’s for lunch?
12:21 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mom dropped off a couple egg mcmuffins
12:21 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which is more than fair considering she also left with one of my credit cards, so god knows what she’s buying
12:21 Jeff W: Are 40-something amazing games enough to move the ZIPS 2022 needle on Frank Schwindel? I don’t think anyone sees a .453 wOBA for him next year, but .292 is looking pretty low, too.
12:22 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not a huge amount
12:22 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t do that one on the fly because I need to translate las vegas stats first
12:22 TomBruno23: You ever start a chat and yell out “LFG” as loud as you can to get yourself fired up?
12:22 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not.
12:23 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a “fired up” kind of guy. I’m more calm and sarcastic.
12:23 JD: Do you still expect The Jays to miss the post season?
12:23 Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they don’t make it, I think they’ll miss being in the postseason
12:23 >this guy<: Dan, who are some journeyman hitters who emerged this season that zips believes in? As in, if they are given the opportunity to play (probably on bad teams) in ’22, could have similar performances. Such as Lane Thomas, Dank Schwindel, Ramon Urias, etc
12:24 Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s something I’m likely to do after I have final minor league translations in
12:24 Dansbee: Wins are a bad stat and yadda yadda but Jon Lester is going to get 200 of them and I am happy for him
12:24 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Egg McMuffins aren’t nutritious, but you can still be happy I have ’em!
12:24 TT: Bo Bichette had another big day with the bat yesterday.  But, his errors are quite high this year.  How long do you expect Bichette to stay at SS for Toronto?
12:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried about a move by any means right now
12:25 The Great Giambino: There could be a kid reading this that will live to be 110, theoretically could be their 2nd-to-last 9/16/21 of their lifetime
12:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: If a kid’s cutting school to come to a szymchat, they’ll probably grow up and become a meth dealer and probably won’t live to be 110
12:25 Soxxxxx: What are the chances Keuchel gets traded this offseason?
12:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very low, I think
12:26 Ghost of Rick Hahn: Why did I make that Kimbrel trade?
12:26 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was still a reasonable trade.
12:26 TomBruno23: Luis Garcia for 2021 St. Louis Cardinals Team MVP?
12:27 Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s been really solid, but that’s a stretch!
12:27 Guest1: My hot dog bun just broke at the seam completely!  But i don’t want a sandwich.  Do i make another?
12:27 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup
12:27 TomBruno23: Will MLB go back to an 8/31 trade deadline? It is painful watching the Padres trot out any live body with an arm still attached.
12:27 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so
12:28 Guest1: Is a fox a cat or dog?
12:28 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Closer to a dog. All in the Canidae family
12:29 Bob Dole: The Cardinals are strongly considering moving their outfield fence in.  Is this something any projection system would factor in proactively?
12:29 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do have a model to approximate fence changes
12:30 John b: I look at Adam wainwright’s performance and how it impacts his bWAR and fWAR each game and it seems WAR materially undercounts his value.  Is there something about his style that metrics don’t like ?
12:30 Avatar Dan Szymborski: a FIP measure is going to be less volatile. fWAR also liked Wainwright more than his ERA the last couple years when he was underperforming his FIP
12:31 Avatar Dan Szymborski: err 2017-2018
12:31 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I keep forgetting years happened
12:31 Avatar Dan Szymborski: But you know what I mean
12:31 Guest: If this is a magic month for teams with bird names, what will happen for the Orioles?
12:31 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Chris Davis won’t unretire
12:32 Guest1: what are you smoking outside?
12:32 Avatar Dan Szymborski: spare ribsd
12:32 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: How would you rate the veggie, uh, plant-based burgers?
12:32 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Never actually had them
12:32 Dave: From my point of view you were nearly 3 hours early if the chat was supposed to start at noon!
12:32 Avatar Dan Szymborski: `I use proper east coast time
12:32 Trey: Do you like Charlie Morton extension? When will he finally show age?
12:32 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fine
12:33 Avatar Dan Szymborski: He is reaching the age at which age-related decline does become a bigger issue
12:33 Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I think the salary reflects that
12:33 Dave: Do you know if an active MLB player has ever actively participated in one of your chats?
12:33 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m aware of. They have better things to do
12:33 Milwaukee Beerjays: Did you ever play ogre battle for the SNES mr.dan?
12:33 Avatar Dan Szymborski: That was a lot of fun!
12:35 Guest1: Norm MacDonald fan?
12:35 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Absolutely!
12:35 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: The Royals are on pace to win 72-75 games. They basically bring the same team back, plus top prospect Witt.  Is that enough to push them to .500 or so?
12:35 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really, no
12:35 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Have you taught ZIPS to love?
12:35 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve barely taught me to love
12:36 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: For 2021, were the Mariners better off with closer Graveman or 2B Toros?
12:36 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think Toro
12:37 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t feel good if you’re a player
12:37 Avatar Dan Szymborski: but the Mariners still have a decent bullpen without Graveman
12:37 Avatar Dan Szymborski: and 2B was mostly a mess this year
12:38 Guest1: harold this is aunt bitsy tell your mom happy birthday how do you get underline oh no what is happening
12:38 The Great Giambino: Season ends today, who are your major award winners?
12:38 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmm
12:38 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ohtani MVP AL
12:38 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cole MVP NL
12:39 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m actually very tempted to take Wander ROY AL in this theoretical
12:39 Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s not necessarily MOST VALUABLE rookie, but best rookie
12:39 Avatar Dan Szymborski: NL Cy C. Milwaukee Burnes
12:40 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Trea would be my MVP, but it’s close
12:40 Avatar Dan Szymborski: NL ROY not saying since I’m a voter tehre
12:40 Benny Baseball: I took that 85% non-tendy personally a few weeks ago Dan!!
12:40 Gus chiggins: whats your cat(s) situation?
12:41 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was sleeping in the back room upstairs
12:41 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mercutio’s probably in the living room as I heard mom praising him through my ceiling when she stopped by
12:41 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t know what the catlets are doing right now. They were at the dining room window watching me check the smoker before I got here
12:41 Gus chiggins: You’re allowing ghosts in here?  Sorry I’m out
12:42 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Favorite amusement park ride?
12:42 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lazy River!
12:42 Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a place here that allows you to bring your alcoholic beverage on the lazy river
12:44 Avatar Dan Szymborski: from a more “ridey” level, I tned to prefer things with a lot of horizontal action and water
12:44 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like vertical things less. I tend to “gray out” in sudden changes in elevation, which has contributed to a healthy dislike of heights and sudden changes in elevation
12:44 Avatar Dan Szymborski: so I love rapids rides and twisty water slides
12:44 Avatar Dan Szymborski: but not the straight down ones.
12:44 Dansbee: If a kid’s cutting school to come to a szymchat it’s probably Juan Soto
12:45 John: Can or has Zips been used to project players’ home and away performance in extreme cases such as the Rockies’?
12:45 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Generic park factors are better predictors of a player’s future home/road splits than their actual home/road splits are!
12:45 Key Flaw: The university I work at has chicken finger thursday for lunch every Thursday (today!). I usually feel just “meh” about it, should I just suck it up and get the chicken fingers or does it really mean I should get a salad instead?
12:45 Avatar Dan Szymborski: how do you mess up chicken fingers?
12:45 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends how good the sald is
12:45 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most places use crap lettude
12:46 Avatar Dan Szymborski: lettuce
12:46 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not interested in salads eating out unless they’re *specific* on a good lettuce like Boston. Or spring mix, which I always enjoy.
12:47 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: If your city had to be abandoned for 20 years (like Chernobyl but without the killer radiation), what animal would take over control?  Raccoons?
12:47 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Raccoons are foragers. There would quickly be no food to forage, I don’t imagine
12:47 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would guess that as wild vegetation grew, you’d get a lot of deer and maybe boar
12:48 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is a porcupine a cat or dog?
12:48 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rodent, so neither are particularly close! At least as close as a fox
12:48 Bill: Did you ever play World of Warcraft? If so, will you play New World?
12:48 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Do do and still. I’ll probably play New World
12:48 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though there’s a Final Fantasy XIV expansion coming up, so I’ll be into that one for awhile
12:49 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I will play the crap out of WoW/FFXIV/GW2 during expansions, but I don’t usually hang around for the periods where it’s just grindy out elite gear
12:49 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I will be around to do some big raids.
12:49 MM: Do the Dodgers sign Seager and Kershaw and Scherzer in the off-season? Or only two of the three?
12:49 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the first two and not Scherzer
12:49 Appa Yip Yip: If you wrap your broken hotdog bun in a fruit by the foot you repair the damage, return it to hotdog-dom, and add a fascinating new flavour dimension
12:50 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What was your favorite 1980s arcade video game?
12:50 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
12:50 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I played a lot of Final Fight and Rampage
12:51 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad arcades still aren’t a big thing! It would be fun to be an adult and be all “Yeah, I can literally stand here and just put quarters in machines all day and not miss the money at all.”
12:51 JP: Will the braves resign Freeman?  Should they?
12:51 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes Yes
12:51 9761014: Do you think universal DH makes it into the CBA? It seems like everyone sees it as an inevitability (ie the players didn’t seem to view it as moving the needle in offers before this season) so maybe it slips through the cracks
12:51 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:52 Gus chiggins: Please help
12:52 Guest2: Alcoholic beverage of choice on lazy River?
12:52 Avatar Dan Szymborski: A nice shandy is proper for gentle floating with the occasional angry waterfall
12:52 Guest3: What kind of smoker?
12:52 Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s a cusiniart electric smoker
12:52 Dansbee: The American way would be to put the fingers in the salad
12:52 Dansbee: That is not a Wendy’s joke
12:52 robertobeers: CRAP LETTUDE is a good create-a-character name
12:53 Guest: Have you been watching MJF’s heat on Brian Pillman Jr? My goodness I haven’t seen a heel with this much heat since Vince, have you?
12:53 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit behind on wrestling lately as the pennant races have heated up
12:53 Guest: Everyone and everything else thinks Robbie Ray is completely dominant while fWAR is way more into Eovaldi and Cole. Not a question just seems to weird.
12:53 Guest3: If you wrap a broken hot dog in vegetable by the yard, you have a healthy snack
12:54 The Great Giambino: Why do your chats always devolve into complete BS by the 45-minute mark?
12:54 Avatar Dan Szymborski: If my chats devolve into nonsense by the 45 minute mark, that means I’ve been rather lax. I try to have that happen by 12:20 or so
12:54 Trey: Kris Medlen is 35 years old
12:54 Robert: Re: Royals.. have we gone from most likely non-tendering Benintendi to extending him for 2-3 years and putting Isbel in CF next season?
12:54 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they tender him
12:55 Jan Brady Anderson: Would you give Sal Perez a down ballot vote for AL MVP?
12:55 Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s had a fun season and it’s great to see him crush homers, but I don’t think he’s in my 10 most valuable
12:56 Avatar Dan Szymborski: especially because I’d likely be more willing to put in pitchers more than most
12:56 Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I haven’t had an MVP yet, just Cy and Rookie)
12:56 Jan Brady Anderson: What’s the best case scenario for the O’s for 2022?
12:56 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The pit beef remains good
12:56 VinnieDaGooch: Cats have to be the answer to the  abandoned city question. Look at what they have done in Australia
12:56 Avatar Dan Szymborski: They kinda chase foragers though, no?
12:57 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rodents kinda follow human activity, I assume
12:57 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though in this example, I guess there wouldn’t be a huge reduction in bird population?
12:57 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming birds are more sensitive to a radiation event than vegetation?
12:57 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I honestly don’t know any of this
12:58 Guest3: Has trout reached “slight disappointment” level yet because of the yearly injuries?  Seems we are missing out on the massive counting stats phase of his career.
12:58 Avatar Dan Szymborski: In this context, you could say yes
12:58 Philly Phantasmic: Biggest change in next CBA?
12:58 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I thin kthere will be some service time adjustments
12:58 Alcides Escobar’s Mom: My little boy has a .8 WAR Dan.  That is all.
12:58 Doug Tedliss: Don’t come at Dan with a cat hypothetical he’ll crush your dreams
12:58 Key Flaw: Name 3 foods that you find so disgusting you won’t even allow on your plate (difficulty: no Cincinnati chili).
12:58 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Broccoli, cauliflower, tongue
12:59 Steve O: If you were running a team, would you rather be in the AL East (Tampa, Toronto, NYY, BOS) or the NL West (LAD/SFG)?
12:59 Avatar Dan Szymborski: AL East. I’m more comfortable on the east coast
12:59 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: There’s no radiation.  Humans had to abandon the city for another, ambiguous reason that does not affect animal health.
12:59 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Then I guess more cats than in a radiation scenario
12:59 Dansbee: your loss on lengua
12:59 Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOU CAN SEE THE TONGUE-NESS
12:59 Appa Yip Yip: Arugula is the ideal salad green
1:00 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I agree. Arugula is badass and I’d be in favor of it replacing lettuce as the viridis franca
1:01 J. Wellington Terwilliger IV: Devolved chats are quite simply an indication of a society that is not of a proper ilk for some of us, shall I say, advanced people.
1:01 Guest: If you can fold your tongue such that it touches itself, have you tasted tongue before?
1:01 Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’ve licked tongue, but you have to bite into it to get taste
1:01 Wilson Betameat: Order one lengua taco with your steak tacos and try to tell which one is lengua.
1:01 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’ve tried. You can tell from texture
1:01 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like tripa
1:01 Doug Tedliss: Final thoughts on today’s chat?
1:01 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was terrible, so about par for the course
1:02 Jan Brady Anderson: Rate the lettuces!
1:02 Avatar Dan Szymborski: GDI
1:02 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Boston is the S tier
1:03 Avatar Dan Szymborski: green leaf red leaf up there
1:03 Avatar Dan Szymborski: iceberg doesn’t even get on the frigging tier list
1:03 Avatar Dan Szymborski: romaine is meh for me
1:03 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not counting endive and escarole and all those
1:04 Jeff: Lorenzen’s got 97 along with a cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball…Is he starting somewhere in 2022? Probably not, pansies
1:04 Guest: what’re you smoking today? (I mean on the smoker, not impugning your chat at all)
1:04 Avatar Dan Szymborski: spare ribs
1:05 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do east NC sauce, so no tomatoes
1:05 Philly Phantasmic: spring mix with spinach or without
1:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Without, though I do like spinach
1:06 Pat: Hey Dan, who do you think the Jays get (if any) in the big FA SS market?
1:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they get an extension on semien
1:06 Harry Caray: Simple question: If the moon were made of spare ribs would you eat it?
1:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably not simply because I have no way to get to the moon
1:06 Avatar Dan Szymborski: and if I did, I could only eat parts of the moon no the whole moon
1:07 Avatar Dan Szymborski: if the astronauts brought back moon ribs, I’d try though
1:07 Philly Phantasmic: Best thing to smoke that’s not pork, beef, chicken, or fish?
1:07 Avatar Dan Szymborski: leg of lamb!
1:07 Avatar Dan Szymborski: or a pineapple
1:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I enjoy cold smoking salmon inside
1:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski: with my gun
1:08 Avatar Dan Szymborski:
1:09 Avatar Dan Szymborski:
1:09 Mark: Dan, next time you visit Jay in Brooklyn go to barcade.
1:10 Avatar Dan Szymborski: there are some places near me I need to check out
1:10 Logan: On a scale of 1 to “Cincinnati Chili,” how disgusted should Reds fans be that they’re going to miss the playoffs because they can’t beat the likes of the Tigers and Pirates?
1:10 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cincinnati chili without spaghetti
1:10 BringBackDeSpanielHair: Most compelling baseball storyline for you at the moment: ready, set, go!
1:10 Avatar Dan Szymborski: WTF Is Going On With the Padres
1:10 Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: Since May 1, Kyle Tucker has the (tied) highest wrc+ in the league, and the xwoba numbers bear that out. He’s only 24; what do you see as his ceiling?
1:10 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very high!
1:11 Guest: if you were on chopped, do you think you’d make a passable dish, like where the judges would have some good and some bad? or just trash it and say “this is not good.” I feel they always try to find some good things but am unsure how much better professional chefs are starting from
1:11 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’d be sort of passable, but inferior to the chefs
1:11 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’d do better in this kind of challenge than a straight cooking challenge.
1:12 D: Should amusement parks have park factors?
1:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
1:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: cost of park
1:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: excitement per minute
1:12 Guest: I’ve never used a smoker before, but I signed up to make a smoked simple syrup on Saturday.  Any advice?
1:12 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t catch yourself on fire?
1:12 Adam: Chopped judges should not be allowed to criticize the food at all.  You made them put bubble gum and horseradish in it, that’s not their fault.
1:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like when they complain they didn’t get ENOUGH of the horror
1:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: like just the other day, one of them was complaining he needed more strawberry milkshake in the sauce for his sliders
1:13 D: If they left it up to you, what would you do with the arb/free agency system for the next CBA?
1:13 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Without being too extreme
1:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would implement revenue sharing based on wins over a certain number.
1:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like wins over 70 or something.
1:14 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Teams like the Rays will spend if it’s in their financial interest to do so.
1:15 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Rays see little financial benefit from winning 90 games instead of 70, as it currently stands.
1:15 Avatar Dan Szymborski: But if htey got a lot MORE in a year like this and much LESS in a year like 2016, players are more valuable to them
1:16 Guest: CHOPPED QUIZ: spaghetti, ground beef, onions, chili powder. What are you making?
1:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: ice cream, of course
1:16 Kate: Is this the offseason the Reds finally move Senzel?  Seems like he desperately needs a fresh start somewhere and I’m still tantalized by the potential there.
1:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s gone at some point in the next two seasons
1:16 Guest: Did you read Judge’s article today on having a “salary pool” for players that MLBPA determines how to divide? I think it’s an interesting idea but would MLBPA even go for it, just because it’s almost certainly tear the union apart in like 10 seconds?
1:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haevn’t read it yet
1:16 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The other change I would make
1:17 Avatar Dan Szymborski: is that the extra days over 6.000 in service time are considered loans that teams have to repay a player when they hit free agency
1:17 Avatar Dan Szymborski: so the Cubs would have to cut Bryant a check for 173/174th times some percentage of his AAV in his next contract
1:17 Avatar Dan Szymborski: for the 173 extra days they “borrowed” from his career
1:18 Adam: Is it permissible to structure a player’s contract for a partial season?  Player becomes a free agent at the All Star break?
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: O dpm
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s anything specifically against that
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: but it’s awkward for both player and team
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: you do see minor league deals with seasonal opt-out points
1:18 Guest: that chopped episode actually had skyline chili in it!
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know. That guy made a Cincinnati chili maple sauce and I wanted to barf in my mouth
1:18 D: Thanks for the answer! But I was asking more about service time issues. Like, everyone’s a free agent at 29? Higher minimum salaries? etc.
1:18 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the last block answered that?
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Not the cincinnati chili maple sauce)
1:19 Philly Phantasmic: If the O’s hired a new GM today, how many years would he or she get before you would complain if they were not winning?  How about the Royals?
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: It depends on what they do.
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: I will complain about a bad move on day 1.
1:19 Guest6: What’s the third best film after Twister and Speed 2: Cruise Control?
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Swarm
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: THE BEES DERAIL A TRAIN
1:19 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Swarm
1:21 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Imagine having this cast and making a movie so bad that it circles around to being good
1:22 YOKOZUNA: Please tell me you still think the Dodgers win the division by 3 games? Game 163 or a wildcard spot feels unfair for a team this good.
1:23 Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re rapidly running out of calendar
1:23 D: Thanks, it did. I do think chili maple sauce solves a lot problems as well.
1:23 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cincinnati chili maple sauce would make me lose weight instantly because I’d never want to eat food
1:24 Avatar Dan Szymborski: In The Swarm, they have the most amazing hilaribad scenes
1:24 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Henry Fonda testing a vaccine on himself
1:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Way too much exposition on explaining why Michael Caine has an English accent
1:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: weird old person love triangle
1:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: quotes like “The bees…they used to be our friends!”
1:25 Avatar Dan Szymborski: The swarm of bees backtracking after kids through Molotov cocktails at them TO GET REVENGE ON THE TOWN
1:26 Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week
1:26 Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!
1:26 Guest: The Swarm? Interesting and fun but no… Zardoz is the answer


Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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